There will be no playoffs

There will be no wild card.

There will be no .500 record

Quite simply, this team now blows as bad or more than last season’s model.

I was right there with many locals over the past three weeks - enjoying the three consecutive wins, albeit against incredibly marginal opponents.  As the Saints and Falcons started off weakly, there was a glimmer of “Hey we could win the Division!”

lol....NFL Myopia can be a wonderful affliction, though the withdrawal symptoms can stir up the brain and body like no other.

Let’s compare the current roster to last years

QB - Jeff Garcia vs Bruce Gradkowski = WIN for the Bucs

OL - Maturation of Joseph and Truelove seems fair, but losing Petigew for season pretty much puts this bunch at little better than 2006

RB - Dismal for sure now that Pittman and Williams are done.  Yeah, MP might be back in December - which is when TBay may nab two of their remaining three wins for the year.

WR - Absolute wasteland and nothing different from 2006.  #1 pick from four years ago Mike Clayton has been officially AWOL since midseason 2006.

DL - #1 pick G Adams is getting manhandled in the middle by opponents O-lines and there’s little else of note.  Kevin Carter, a 13 year experienced and pretty slow veteran makes little impact.

LB - Adding Cato June doesn’t hurt, but here’s a news flash.  EVERY NFL TEAM upgrades their LBs with a fresh body or two every year.  So any net gain by the Bucs is cancelled out by every other team having made similar upgrade.

Meanwhile, Derrick Brooks another year older and another step slower.

DB - Brian Kelly playing no more than last year.  Phil Buchanan is still a nickel D spare that was rejected from OAKLAND for chrissakes.

Meanwhile, Ronde Barber another year older and another step slower.

Tampa Bay’s offense in regular season since winning the Super Bowl after 2002 season averages 14.1 pts per game.  This year’s version got loose with 31 versus the (once again) lowly Saints, but overall are just 18 ppg and there’s nothing to give rise to thinking they will maintain even that meager number during the final 11 games of 2007.  They’re currently 25th overall and quite likely to drop even further.  Not exactly the hallmark of a “Division contender”.

The defense is one year older and slower than last year’s version which ranked 17th in the league.

Who are the Bucs going to beat in next 11 games?

TENN - Dubious considering they will likely be outrushed by 2to1

at DET - How are they going to contain Kitna when they have NO pass rush (eight sacks in five games to date)?

JAX - Yummmy.....Getting shut out at home is FUN!

ARZ - By the time the Cardinals slip in and out of the CITS with a late game FG win, no one in Tampa fan base will not be looking to Draft 2008.

at ATL - Hey Wait!  It’s the lowly Falcons!  Who by this time will have established a moderate rhythm with either Harrington or Leftwich and could likely punk the Bucs in the GDome.

WAS - Continuing to mature J Campbell, a solid rushing game and defense could make this a severe smakdown from Skins.

at NO - Hey Wait! It’s the lowly Saints!  Who by this time will have established a moderate rhythm post-Deuce and could likely punk the Bucs in SuperDome.

at Hou - Sad times in the land of plenty.  Matt Schaub picks apart a bedraggled Bucs defense, the Texans outrush Tampa Bay and the Houston FG kicker bangs 4+ through the uprights.

ATL - Bucs crush Atlanta and December retail outlets in the TBay area are grateful.

at SF - Seems like a maybe, except Alex Smith should be back in saddle for Niners and by this point the 4-10 Bucs really won’t give a crap about a west coast Roadie two days before Christmas.

CAR - Another possible late season fun win as Bucs play spoiler versus the Panthers who will be trying to get some momentum entering the playoffs as NFC South champs - albeit with maybe just eight or nine wins.

Dug a little deeper in the poop file and it gets even stinkier.

Bucs have only TWO wins versus teams with winning records in their PAST FIFTY FOUR outings.

I wish I was making that stat up.

Even in their Division winning season two years ago, they had only one win versus a winning team.

Well it’ll be interesting to see how that goes for you.  Nice rant.

So the Panthers are going to win the Division while on their way to the playoffs? Just because they signed “Vinny”? LOL! LOL!

It would seem that one of the other three teams will indeed win the NFC South because the Bucs won’t win more than seven games.

Atlanta and New Orleans will each be lucky if they win 6 games apiece at this point. Carolina has two NFC games against tougher NFCE AND NFCN opponents than who we drew (All based on last year’s finishes) and along with their current QB situation I think they(Panthers) will be lucky to win 7 games this season. If both teams finish with the same records look for the Bucs to win the division like they did in 2005. This time it will be based on a Bucs sweep of Carolina, along with a better divisional record than what the Panthers will have.
I think the Bucs can win at least 9 games with our schedule, and that should be good enough to win the 3rd NFC South title in 6 years.

Care to predict which of the next 11 opponents will make up the Bucs’ six wins? (which BTW makes a number - 9 - that could well win the NFC South this season?

I’ve no particular anti-Buc axe to grind.  My primary football interest is from a handicapping and investing side.  I’m just baffled at creating a scenario of where they could pull that many wins.

SteveInClearwater - 13 October 2007 08:47 AM

Care to predict which of the next 11 opponents will make up the Bucs’ six wins? (which BTW makes a number - 9 - that could well win the NFC South this season?

I’ve no particular anti-Buc axe to grind.  My primary football interest is from a handicapping and investing side.  I’m just baffled at creating a scenario of where they could pull that many wins.

Steve, okay fine, we take at face value your statement the Bucs cannot make the playoffs. You are counting on:

ATL keeping their coach the full season. They are already calling for his head at 1-4 and B. Leftwich is not the answer. J. Harrington is probably better, but if you have not noticed, they cannot stop offenses and they cannot score points - so they are not winning many games.

NO - well, so far they have yet to win a game.  So tell me again how all of a sudden they are going to win the division - they play the same tough teams the bucs do in the AFC.

Carolina - okay, you may have a case here.  This team does have Vinny Testaverde, and I am sure he is good for 3 or 4 wins.  David Carr has shown now in Houston and in Carolina that he is a quality QB who can throw two or three completions a game to the other team.

THe problem with your analysis is that none of the teams in the South are complete by any stretch of the imagination.  Yes, the Bucs have problems.  Are they going to go 5-11 as you predict?  Who knows?  I do know that none of the other teams in the NFC South have a chance of making .500 except Carolina, and that is asking a lot of them with no QB to play.  Then again, I guess you believe that 44 year old V. Testaverde is the savior of the Panthers since you are counting on them to win the NFC South. 

In my mind, the division is the most messed up it has ever been since the realignment.  No one will go beyond the first round of the playoffs most likely.  Howver, I think the Bucs have a decent chance to win it because of the reasons given above - no one else is grabbing the brass ring.

The NFC South plays the NFC West this year, probably the second most awful division in the NFC.  You asked who else can they beat besides division opponents. To say they have no chance against SF 49ers is kind of crazy.  Arizona, who knows how good they are.  Say they split those two, and go 1-1, now we have 4-3.  We still have the rest of the Colts division.  Say they win one of those three games, now we have 5-5.  Still have ATL twice, Saints once, and Carolina once at home.  ATL has had a terrible time beating Tampa even in bad years, so they split and are at 6-6.  Saints at Carolina say split again (I am being really pessimsitic) and now they are at 7-7.  That leaves the powerful Detroit Lions (not) and Washington Redskins.  Lose both, they are at 7-9, split again and you get 8-8 - and that may just be enough to win the divison.  Again, you are asking Atlanta to get on a big winning streak to make 8-8 and the same goes for NO which has yet to win at 0-5.  That leaves Carolina and do you think it will be a snap for them to break .500?  Who are they going to beat since they get to play Chicago and Philidelphia instead (the only two games that are different on the schedules)?  Chicago is very dangerous, and Phily is terrible - so say 1-1 for them as well. 

Realisistically, either Carolina or Tampa will win the division and a record as low as 8-8 will do it.  For the Saints to do it they have to go 8-3 the remaining games or ATL has to go 7-4 - and neither will do it.  I am just looking at this from the reverse angle - I don’t see anyone in the South winning a ton of games this year.

SteveInClearwater - 11 October 2007 07:05 PM

Dug a little deeper in the poop file and it gets even stinkier.

Bucs have only TWO wins versus teams with winning records in their PAST FIFTY FOUR outings.

I wish I was making that stat up.

Even in their Division winning season two years ago, they had only one win versus a winning team.

Sorry Steve in Clearwater, you clearly made this up.  I count three in just one sesaon: 2005
Washington Redskins 36-35 (10-6)
Carolina Panthers 20-10 (11-5)
Minnisota Vikings 24-13 (9-7)

So so far I have found three teams in the PAST THIRTY SEVEN outings.  They also beat a number of teams that were 8-8 that year including Atlanta twice. 
.
If I add in 2004 the Bucs beat Atlanta late in the season which was 11-5 that year, so that raises it to FOUR WINS IN FORTY TWO outings.  Not fantastic, not even good, but it really puts into question when you quote stats how much you check your facts - not much at all it seems.  So it seems you like to rant - good luck with it.  Please check your facts before you go raving online.  It gives you a lot more creditabilty.

SteveInClearwater - 13 October 2007 08:47 AM

Care to predict which of the next 11 opponents will make up the Bucs’ six wins? (which BTW makes a number - 9 - that could well win the NFC South this season?

I’ve no particular anti-Buc axe to grind.  My primary football interest is from a handicapping and investing side.  I’m just baffled at creating a scenario of where they could pull that many wins.

My Six additional wins could start today with Tennessee, then Detroit,New Orleans,Atlanta(twice), and Carolina.
Houston,San Francisco,Jacksonville,Washington and Arizona all look to be close and a Bucs win in any of them is not out of the question.

The magic number for the 4-2 Bucs is probably “5”. As in having to win 5 out of the remaining 10 regular season games in order to be assured of winning the division. It would mean 9 wins and at least hosting a wildcard game. Do-Able in spite of everything that has gone wrong so far.

Four wins in past 42 outings is admittedly much mightier than two.

heh

Perhaps my pessimistic rant (along with the Vince Young leg injury) were exactly what the Bucs need to rally to a seven or eight win season.

Bucs pulling an amazing slight of hand in today’s game with just 30 yards rushing and only a dozen first downs to the Titan’s twenty.

Nice job grabbing the turnovers at right moment.

SteveInClearwater - 14 October 2007 07:49 PM

Four wins in past 42 outings is admittedly much mightier than two.

heh

Perhaps my pessimistic rant (along with the Vince Young leg injury) were exactly what the Bucs need to rally to a seven or eight win season.

you know idk how you can be a bucs fan and be saying this. how can you not be opimisitc about this season??? saints and falcons blow. panthers are right with us but they will DROP with carr or testicleterdy starting for them. the win today finally proives we can beat a good team. winning the close games is vital for a good season very vital and we proved we can hold up and win in crunch time. and i dont know why you think our schedule from here on out is so tough. everyeone said at the beginning of the season we had a shot at the playoffs if we cold come out of the first 5 games with 2-3 record because our shcedule gets easier. We have the falcons twice the panthers and saints one more time. Right there are 4 winnable games. then we have the 49ers, cards, lions, skins, jags and texans. So you tell me we cant win 5 of those games for a 9 win season???????  the only 2 teams out of them that are playing really well right now is the skins and jags. everyone else is average at best… If we cna pick up someone like tatum bell since he wants to be traded look out.... cause we will make the playoffs. Now our success in the playoffs will be a different story

SteveInClearwater - 14 October 2007 07:49 PM

Four wins in past 42 outings is admittedly much mightier than two.

heh

Perhaps my pessimistic rant (along with the Vince Young leg injury) were exactly what the Bucs need to rally to a seven or eight win season.

The point was you posted a fact without even checking it.  I did not go back far enough to see if there were more wins, there might be.  I admit there are probably not many more.  However, don’t blame the Titan’s loss on Vince Young being injured.  Collins is a decent QB, and the defense had made V Young pretty ineffective into the third quarter.  This TN team has a propensity for turnovers - they were tied for the lead in fumbles in the NFL entering the game, after last week’s five turnover performance against the Falcons.  The Bucs needed only two to beat them. 

I don’t think the Bucs are amazing, or even fantastic.  I do think they are a solid team that is missing a running back badly which can cause problems before the season is over.  However, with the win against the AFC South the Bucs already met one of my criteria to get to 8-8.  Don’t look now, but Houston without their top wide receiver is now not scoring that many points and losing a number of games.  The Bucs may still do better than my forcasted 1-3 in that division, I think 2-2 is not out of the possiblity against that mediocre division.  I appreciate your admiting you were on a negative rant - all of us are entitled to our opinions, right?