Here is what I took away from the game with Jacksonville:
Mistakes which were missing from the Bucs the first four weeks of the season have reared their ugly head in the second four weeks.
As I predicted in Steve’s betting line stream, Jacksonville was unable to pass except on rare occasion. What I did not count on was their ability to run just enough all day to score a few points. It did not help that Jacksonville blitzed a lot to put a ton of pressure on Garcia. The offensive line could not hold up under that pressure, and at times Garcia was desperately throwing the ball away, forcing plays (with two interceptions), and running for his life (when was the last time he ran for 45 yards?)
I say two interceptions as the last one was not his fault - that was Ike Hillard who coughed up the ball on the hit and then Garcia got the third INT. Garcia may have been off yesterday, but that was because the o-line did not give him the time to find people most of the time. The amazing thing to me is that the Bucs were in this game until the end despite the fact they were turning the ball over all day. Jacksonville was down by 6 points going into the fourth quarter despite the fact the Bucs were running a turnover deficit.
Jacksonville did not have a ton of success with only a four person rush, but add in a fifth and that was the end of the Bucs o-line. The Jaguars blitzed heavily during the game and Garcia’s play was the result.
Like I also said last week, 9-7 or 8-8 is going to win the NFC South unless New Orleans keeps playing the way it is on offense. Still, next week New Orleans will also play Jacksonville (although with no passing attack by Jax, if New Orleans does not make mistakes they will win.) Houston is probably the next hardest game left for New Orleans, although Chicago (which cannot run) is still where the season ends on the road for New Orleans. If NO loses those three games, then the best they can do is 9-7. The rest of the schdule is playing the Rams, Cardinals, and Eagles, and the NFC South - which who knows if the teams in that division can offer a challenge. It will depend on Tampa’s ability not to make mistakes, and Carolina’s ability to surprise people.
Carolina’s schedule is incredibly tough with Dallas, Tennessee, and other winning teams still on their schedule and since it is also 4-3, I don’t see it pulling away all of a sudden.
That leaves us with Tampa (as ATL will not threaten anyone). If we see the Tampa of the first four weeks making error-free football, they will be in the running in the end around 8-8 and 9-7. However, if we continue to see the Tampa team that fumbles the ball (last week) or throws INTs (this week), then the season will self-destruct. The Bucs are not good enough to overcome two or three turnovers. They come close, but they have not demonstrated any ability to overcome giving the ball away.
I don’t think it as simple as Steve says the Bucs cannot score points - at times this year they have (Jax was another 20+ point output). The big play has returned to Tampa - I saw last week on Fox that the Bucs in the NFC have the most 40+ plays for TDs in the NFL this year, which was surprising (they average one a game - which they did against the Jaguars as well). It is also why they have been more competitive this year as it is a dimension that Garcia has added each and every week.
The NFC South is up for grabs, with the exception of Atlanta, anyone can win it at 9-7 or 8-8. I beleive that is a realistic look at the division.
