Undeniably, the Bucs are in much better shape this year than just about anyone expected. However, the team is still one injury away (J. Garcia) from being out of it. The whole NFC South has lost either their starting QB (ATL, CAR) or starting RB (TB, NO). The Bucs adjusted the best so far, with a surprisingly deep bench at RB (who expected that E. Graham, third string, to be able to pick up the slack as well as he has so far?)
Yes, they should be favored with a relatively mundane schedule. However, the Saints schedule is not any harder - just their defense is outright terrible at times. Carolina’s schedule is a killer with all the above .500 teams they still play.
I stand by my statement in an earlier stream - it is down to New Orleans and Tampa, with the edge to Tampa since it has a solid if not spectacular defense which is far better than New Orleans’ pourous defense. I also still think 9-7 will likely win this division this year (as well as potentially the NFC West and AFC West which have nearly as many problems in key positions - except San Diego where its key problem is the coach it has).