There are three major problems with his candidacy:
1) No underclassman has ever won the Heisman
2) He lead a top program to a very average record (by UF’s high standards).
3) While other great players play in championship games he’ll be idle.
4) There’s an anti-SEC bias in the award.
I think he’s the best player, but that doesn’t equate to winning the Heisman. Put aside the big plays and the highlights for a second, and just think about one thing; what is more impressive, leading doormat Mizzou to the National Championship game, or leading a top (5?) program UF to an 9-3 Capital One Bowl? Ok, Mizzou is not a doormat, but 2006 8-5, 2005 7-5, 2004 5-6, 2003 8-5. In fact, looking back the last year they had a record better than 8-4 was 1969, when they went 9-2. In recruiting, Mizzou had the 33rd best class in 2007, 47th in 2006, 39th in 2005, and 29th in 2004 (Rivals). That’s why I think Chase Daniel may pass him. It’s just a more compelling story, the Cindarella just sells better than a stat-monster on a great program having an average year.
Now Tebow’s the better player. No college coach, if he had both, would end up with Chase as a starter and Tebow on the bench. It could never happen. But it’s more compelling, and a potential Missouri conference championship win will be the last thing on voter’s minds (Go Oklahoma!) as Tebow sits idle.
Oh, and think there’s not an anti-SEC bias? Even though the SEC is year in year out the best conference, and leads all conferences in current NFL players, the SEC has one winner in the last 20 years. Voters prefer schools from the Big 10 (plus ND), PAC 10, and traditional Big 8.
Consider this:
Total Heisman winners:
Southern Cal 7
Ohio State 7
Notre Dame 7
All SEC combined 8 (Note, Alabama, despite their history, zero).
So, I would have thought, before I ever heard of Tebow, that for an underclassman to win the award everything would have to go just right. It would have to be a player on the right team (USC, OSU, ND) having a great year, playing for a championship, with a weak field. Tebow doesn’t have any of that. He’s playing for the wrong team (SEC), with a mediocre team record, no championship of any kind, and there’s other strong candidates.
The one thing going for him is his ridiculous statistics, along with a great highlight reel of individual plays. The fact that he’s, for now, the favorite, shows just how unbelievable he is.
I think if Mizzou wins Tebow loses. If Oklahoma wins, Tebow wins.
